Why Is Nike Being Pushed Out of the S&P 100: Five Years of Direct Sales, Wholesale and Greater China

📋Stocks out, stocks in#

S&P 100 changes effective September 21

The table in the same press release lists NIKE (NKE), Honeywell Aerospace (HONA), Simon Property Group (SPG) and others as deletions from the S&P 100 effective September 21, and Dell Technologies (DELL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Arista Networks (ANET) and others as additions.

Before the open on September 21#

From announcement to effective date

S&P Dow Jones Indices made the announcement on September 4, and the effective date is September 21. The changes take effect before trading begins that day. Until then, Nike remains in the S&P 100. How will removal from the index affect the share price through selling by index-tracking funds?

📉Market value#

One-fifth of the peak

According to Fortune, Nike's market value was $264 billion at its November 2021 peak (when shares traded at $179.10) and about $57 billion as of the article on September 8, 2026. That is down 78% from the peak, and down 36% in 2026 alone.

Shares around $38#

As of September 8, 2026

Shares traded at around $38. Market value and share price move every day, so these figures are as of that date. Fortune's article came out on September 8, four days after the exit announcement. The numbers may move further before the exit takes effect on September 21.

🧾Fiscal 2026 results#

Revenue of $46.4 billion, down 2%

These are the fiscal 2026 figures (year ended May 31) that Fortune compiled from Nike's results. Revenue was $46.4 billion, down 2% excluding currency effects. The decline in total revenue is not large, but broken down by sales channel and region, the movements differ.

Direct sales down 6%, wholesale up 6%#

Selling through wholesale again

Direct-to-consumer revenue fell 6% to $17.7 billion, and wholesale revenue rose 6% to $27.5 billion. The size of the change is the same 6%, but the directions are opposite. How much does the rise in wholesale revenue overlap with discounted sales to clear inventory?

Greater China#

Fourth-quarter revenue down 17%

Greater China revenue fell 17% in the fourth quarter on a constant-currency basis. Set against the 2% decline in total revenue for the same year, the drop in one region in one quarter stands out. Is the decline in Greater China temporary, or a shift in the competitive landscape?

Through the first half of fiscal 2027#

The revenue decline the company expects

Nike said revenue declines would continue through the first half of fiscal 2027. Since fiscal 2026 ended on May 31, the decline period the company expects runs past the September 21 exit.

🔄The direction the company is pushing#

CEO Elliott Hill's turnaround strategy

Fortune summarized the turnaround strategy under CEO Elliott Hill as focused on rebuilding wholesale relationships, cutting excess inventory and emphasizing performance products. Hill said in the results that revenue headwinds continue but there has been progress in performance products.

Numbers pointing the same way#

Direct sales down, wholesale up

The figures showing direct sales down and wholesale up also point in the same direction as this explanation. But pointing the same way does not show that the strategy has worked. How much the rise in wholesale overlaps with discounted sales has not been confirmed yet either.

🔍Where did it go wrong#

What these sources alone cannot settle

Where the choice to grow the share of direct sales went wrong cannot be settled from these sources alone, because the company's explanation and market interpretation are mixed together. There are three questions to check. They ask about wholesale and discounting, the nature of the decline in Greater China, and index-tracking funds. Each question is attached to the branch that holds the related figures.